Pajama Pundits

A geophysicist friend, remarked after a visit to one of the local casinos, "Casino gambling just isn't exciting after 40 years in the oil business."

I'm guessing some journalists are just now figuring this out.

I proposed to him a bet using what Julian considered the best measure of a resource's value: how it compares with the average worker's wage. I offered to bet that the price of oil would not rise faster than the average wage, meaning that future workers would be able to afford oil more easily than they could today.

Mr. Simmons said he favored a simpler wager, based on his expectation that the price of oil, now about $65 per barrel, would more than triple during the next five years. He said he'd bet that the price in 2010, when adjusted for inflation so it's stated in 2005 dollars, would be at least $200 per barrel.

Maybe bankers are as jaded as oil men when it comes to ordinary gambling. Kevin Drum points out that for Simmons to take Tierney's money in the original proposition, oil would only have to hit about $85 per barrel. He wants to take Tierney up on the original bet.

Enter Megan McArdle, non-gambler.

While the long term trend may well be upwards, in the short term, there's going to be a lot of volatility. To bet that oil will be above $85 a barrel in five years, you have to bet that China won't go into recession, Americans won't change their driving/insulating habits, Iraq won't be able to boost its oil production past the tepid prewar levels driven down by years of mismanagement, Saudi Arabia will default on its promises to raise production by 2.5 million bpd--indeed, no OPEC producers will respond to higher prices by increasing their pumping capacity, and that about a zillion other things that could drive down the price of oil, won't.

(So will I back John Tierney? Not I! How would little ol' me know when the bull will end its run and the bear will start?)

Oh heck, give me a roll of quarters and let's hit the slots. If I double my money, I'll be able to buy an almost full tank of gas.

UPDATE: Make that almost a half tank a gas.

Hopefully, it's just the fan motor and not the compressor.

This minor crisis may motivate me to enter Lennox's Search for the Most Uncomfortable Home in North America.

It could be worse. The forecast for the next few days is not that bad, we have an attic fan, and the AC at Barnes and Noble still works. Maybe I'll use this time to obey the command to read Swinburne.

Miss a day (okay... a week) of blogging and end up hopelessly behind the pack. Now I'm playing catch-up.

1. Jane Fonda needs to go see Movin' Out. Not only is the Vietnam scene choreographed to We Didn't Start The Fire moving and emotionally intense, the two subsequent dances by the war widow suggest that one can be stuck in mourning beyond it's usefulness, whether it be the Civil War or Vietnam. It's way past time for Fonda to let go of her past, and allow this country to finally stop fighting the Vietnam War.

2. Sometimes I think religion is going to be the death of us.

3. If I knew where the center was, maybe Pajama Pundits would have made it on the list of bloggers asked to name their "Least Favorite People On the Right". Bill O'Reilly would have got at least one more vote. Then again, Eric at Classical Values has a good point - Inflammatory Talk Beats Colorless Totalitarianism. It is a wonder that James Sensenbrenner didn't make the list.

4. The 2nd Amendment is the canary in the Civil Rights mine.

5. Profound, or simply found?

6. Ace of Spades accused of being adult and mature! If he was a mature adult, surely there would be a link to Pajama Pundits on his site, right?

7. Dr. Sanity notes the humor in a headline and the insanity behind it.

8. This is even more insane: Hey New York Times…have you NO DECENCY? Finally, have you NO DECENCY?

9. Stephen Green on work habits. Stephen Green on ribs. Stephen Green on abortion, gun control, and evolution.

10. Sisyphean Musings - Selected (and incomplete) Biblio of the Decision to Go to War and the Elusive Phase IV Plan. This should keep me busy the rest of the day.