Polls and Pollsters are confusing
There doesn't seem to be much doubt that Louisiana's electoral votes will go to George Bush, but I'm confused about some statements in this Shreveport Times article: It's Bush by how much in Louisiana?
Specifically:
I'm pleased to see that 45% of black voters are predicted to vote for Bush, but I'm surprised that it's a much larger number than predicted nationwide. If that's accurate and the trend holds true across the Deep South, that looks like a huge loss for Kerry to me.
According to the Eagleton Institute of Politics, Louisiana's ethnicity is approximately 64% white and 33% black. (2000 figures, but I have no reason to believe there's been a dramatic change.)
Though math isn't my greatest strength, do the 2004 numbers make mathematical sense? I hope a polling genius will read this and let me know.
Specifically:
Pollster Verne Kennedy of Market Research Insight of Pensacola, Fla., said tracking polling through Thursday indicates Bush would carry Louisiana by about 8 points, or approximately 54 percent to 46 percent.
In 2000, President Bush carried Louisiana with 53 percent in racially polarized voting: 72 percent of whites went for Bush and 92 percent of blacks voted for Gore.
Kennedy said this time Bush is getting about 74 percent of decided white voters and 45 percent of black voters.
I'm pleased to see that 45% of black voters are predicted to vote for Bush, but I'm surprised that it's a much larger number than predicted nationwide. If that's accurate and the trend holds true across the Deep South, that looks like a huge loss for Kerry to me.
According to the Eagleton Institute of Politics, Louisiana's ethnicity is approximately 64% white and 33% black. (2000 figures, but I have no reason to believe there's been a dramatic change.)
Though math isn't my greatest strength, do the 2004 numbers make mathematical sense? I hope a polling genius will read this and let me know.
